Expert Judgment and Expert Systems by Kenneth R. Hammond (auth.), Jeryl L. Mumpower, Ortwin Renn,

By Kenneth R. Hammond (auth.), Jeryl L. Mumpower, Ortwin Renn, Lawrence D. Phillips, V. R. R. Uppuluri (eds.)

This quantity is an outgrowth of a NATO complex examine Workshop on "Expert Judgment and professional Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. help for the Workshop was once supplied by means of the NATO department of medical Affairs, the U.S. military study Institute, and the U.S. nationwide technology beginning. The Workshop introduced jointly researchers from the fields of psychology, determination research, and synthetic intelligence. the needs have been to evaluate similarities, ameliorations, and complementarities one of the 3 ways to the research of specialist judgment; to guage their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to suggest ecocnomic linkages among them. all the papers within the current quantity is directed towards a number of of these ambitions. we want to show our appreciation and because of the subsequent people for his or her aid and information: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

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Mathematical models and methods have been developed extensively over the centuries. Knowledge Representation has a much shorter history, but also sophisticated formalisms are available. What is missing is the combination of these two types of tools. It is not clear, however, that these two aspects are automatically compatible. Incorporation of one type of method may very well weaken the other tools. The problem is that most problems do not automatically split into two parts where one is adapted to AImethods and the other can be handled by classical methods.

38 Pairwise Comparisons as Ratios Assume that we are given n stones, AI' ••• , An whose weights wI' ••• , wn ' respectively, are known to us. Let us form the matrix of pairwise ratios whose rows give the ratios of the weights of each stone with respect to all others. Thus we have the matrix: Al Al wI /w 2 A2 w2/~1 A2 An wI/w 2 . •• wl/wn w2/ w2 . •• w2/wn A -(' An wn/wl wn/w2 wn/wn wI w2 wI w2 wn wn . )( )-n( . ) We have mul tipl ied A on the right by the vector of weights w. The result of this multiplication is nw.

1 R. 176 1/2 1 1 C. R. 065 and some ranks are reversed. , with the composite priority of its criterion to the sums of the products of the random consistency index for that order matrix with the composite priority of the corresponding criterion (as used in the numerator). 10 in order not to cause concern for needed improvements in the judgments. Let nj' j = 1, 2, ... , h, be the number of elements in the jth level of the hierarchy. Let Wij be the composite weight of the ith criterion of the jth level, and let l-ti,j+1 be the 52 consistency index of all elements in the (j+l)st level compared with respect to the ith criterion of the jth level.

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