Option Strategies for Earnings Announcements: A Comprehensive, Empirical Analysis

By Ping Zhou

By way of buying and selling on company profits, traders can reliably revenue in either up and down markets, whereas fending off marketplace danger for almost the full zone. during this booklet, best investors and portfolio managers current particular, actionable ideas an individual can use to trap those enormous gains. Ping Zhou and John Shon have played an unparalleled empirical research of hundreds of thousands of shares, reviewing thousands and thousands of knowledge issues linked to alternative costs, profits declaration returns, and basics. Their giant research has pointed out constant possibilities linked to concentrating on the significance of the market’s response to profits, now not its path. Option buying and selling Set-Ups for company gains information offers concrete assistance for bettering the chance of constructing right forecasts, and dealing with the dangers of fallacious forecasts. It introduces numerous how you can take advantage of choice buying and selling possibilities round gains information, talk about an important matters that the majority retail traders haven’t thought of, and discover features of earnings-related alternative buying and selling that experience by no means been empirically tested and documented prior to. for instance, they determine hidden styles and strength possibilities in accordance with valuation, undefined, volatility, analyst forecasts, seasonality, and trades that instantly follow profits bulletins. easily positioned, buying and selling on profits experiences bargains massive revenue possibilities, should you understand how. This publication presents incontrovertible proof and distinct thoughts, not only theories and anecdotes!

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Does the choice marketplace take this phenomenon under consideration? particularly, we're drawn to the cross-sectional edition of the functionality of long/short straddles round profits bulletins looking on the valuation ratios. we begin via examining the impression of P/B ratios at the functionality of lengthy straddles. the implications are mentioned in desk thirteen. 1. The conservative seventy five% rule used to be assumed for alternative go back calculations. functionality of lengthy straddles was once greater for the excessive P/B shares (those with excessive valuation) than for low P/B shares (those with low valuation).

The distance was once even larger for top implied volatility positions, making them larger applicants for shorting. costs of low implied volatility techniques, nevertheless, can spike at times simply because expectancies are so low. Implied volatility often raises ahead of gains bulletins and collapses after gains bulletins. although, rises in implied volatility prior to the bulletins have been rather small. This small upward push used to be inadequate to offset time decay, so procuring straddles or strangles sooner than the bulletins was once on regular unprofitable.

1% as opposed to maybe 10% versus... precisely 1. 93%. And wouldn’t you love to understand how many of all such trades are winners? we all know that it’s greater than 50%. yet is it fifty one% or 80%? (We’re now not telling you simply but. ) Is it sufficient so you might comprehend that the general median returns have been 1. 93%? Or do you want to understand how the suggestions fared in convinced industries and likely years? a brief straddle entered within the production in an uneventful, uneventful yr like 2005 is perhaps various from an analogous process for a monetary enterprise in 2008 and 2009.

Three indicates the functionality of lengthy straddles round profits bulletins for various P/S ratios. back, lengthy straddles had higher effects for high-valued shares (those with excessive P/S) than for low-valued shares (those with low P/S). The constant leads to Tables thirteen. 1, thirteen. 2, and thirteen. three display that the alternative of valuation ratios doesn't have an effect on the discovering that high-valuation shares are higher applicants for lengthy straddles than low-valuation shares. desk thirteen. three. P/S and function of lengthy Straddles Valuation and function of brief Straddles round gains bulletins We now flip to the effect of valuation ratios at the functionality of brief straddles round gains bulletins.

0542 + zero. 0010 × P/E Rank + ε The R-squared of the regression was once very low (0. 07%), suggesting the version healthy the knowledge poorly. The coefficient on P/E rank, zero. 0010, was once small yet statistically major (with a t-statistic of three. 04), suggesting a vulnerable optimistic organization among P/E rank and absolute gains assertion returns. determine thirteen. 2 indicates suggest and median absolute profits assertion returns for the 5 P/E quintiles. The targeted facts are supplied in desk A13. 2 within the “Appendix” part.

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