By Professor Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau, Éric Bélanger
An unique and accomplished examine of the sociological and mental forces using person offerings in French Presidential elections. according to a distinct comparative research of 4 French presidential contests over the past twenty years, this booklet offers a rigorous exam of long term and temporary voter motivations.
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Extra info for French Presidential Elections (French Politics, Society and Culture)
In this book, we will engage in that debate. For now, we simply take ideological identification as our principal marker of partisan feeling in the mass electorate. Ideological identification, at the aggregate, national level, can be measured from French public-opinion surveys from 1962 to 2002. The macro-fluctuations of left identification, when plotted, appear similar to the fluctuations of the left vote share reported above. 64; Bélanger and LewisBeck, 2010). Thus, the macro-partisan pattern might have underlying ideological shifts in electoral opinion as a source.
Indd 20 6/28/2011 8:21:03 PM Social Structure 21 positioning of the respondents. Such a situation could appear with respect to age because of a certain attraction among young voters for political options situated on the two extremes of the political spectrum (the extreme left and the extreme right). Some conclusions can be drawn from the examination of these tables. The first speaks to religion as an important general difference among voters who support different political families in France. 5.
47 represent the increase in the probability of supporting right-wing candidate Jacques Chirac among older, male, educated, and practicing Catholic voters versus those having the opposite characteristics. A word must be said about the performance of this socio-demographic vote model. Pseudo-R2 is a measure that provides a useful indicator of this subject. (There are multiple pseudo-R-squared measures for binomial logistic regression models. 41 2nd round Notes: Entries are changes in voting probabilities generated by Clarify (Tomz, Wittenberg, and King 2003) for a variation in age, gender, education, and religion, when all other variables are held constant.